Lula wins fourth term as turnout drop closes gap over Flávio Bolsonaro

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured a fourth term as president of Brazil on Sunday, defeating far-right rival Flávio Bolsonaro in a runoff that reversed a substantial first-round deficit. With nearly 99% of ballots counted, Lula received 51.75% of the vote while Bolsonaro, 45, collected 48.25%.

The shift in results was driven largely by changes in voter participation. The first round in early October recorded a record abstention rate of 21.08%, a figure that disproportionately affected Lula's support base, whose constituents often live farther from polling stations. In the second round, abstention dropped to 19.21%. This increase in turnout allowed Lula to close a 2.2 million vote gap and finish 4.3 million votes ahead of his opponent.

Lula, who turns 81 on Tuesday, had lost three previous presidential bids in 1989, 1994, and 1998 before becoming Brazil's first elected working-class president in 2002. He previously served two consecutive terms and returned to power in 2022 by defeating the incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro, who is the father of this year's challenger. No candidate who finished second in the first round has ever won the subsequent runoff since Brazil returned to democracy in the 1980s.

Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup, watched the count from house arrest in Brasília. He had anticipated that a victory for his son would lead to his release and a role in the new government. The defeat of Flávio Bolsonaro marks a setback for the family and for US President Donald Trump, who had hoped Brazil would align with other pro-Trump leaders in Latin America, including those in Colombia, Ecuador, Chile, and Argentina.

Supporters demonstrated their presence before the vote, with more than a million people gathering on Copacabana beach in Rio de Janeiro and a larger crowd marching on Paulista Avenue in São Paulo. On Sunday evening, hundreds returned to Paulista Avenue to observe the count, waving red flags featuring Lula's image. Camilo Buarque, 35, stated, "This is democracy."

The election also followed weeks of student-led protests and an alleged attempt by pro-Bolsonaro politicians to disrupt voting by sabotaging public transport in areas favoring Lula. The effort to disrupt the process failed. Reginaldo Lopes, a key ally of Lula, described the result as Brazil sending a message to the world about the extreme right. He said the country would now "reorganize the democratic forces."