1,160 km: Israel's deep penetration into Syria complicates post-election diplomacy

Israeli troops have advanced 1,160 kilometers into Syria, a depth that complicates post-election diplomatic efforts despite shifting political coalitions.

A study by the Syrian think tank Etana released last week details that Israeli forces occupied territory up to 400 kilometers from the disputed border. The report counts 1,996 ground operations in southwest Syria between January and September of this year. These figures underscore the physical reality on the ground that political analysts in the region are now assessing against the backdrop of Israel's recent election results.

The election produced no clear winner, leaving the formation of a new government uncertain. Observers in Egypt, Jordan, and the Gulf states have remained largely silent. This caution stems from the unknown nature of the incoming administration, which could be led by incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot. Both camps have signaled continuity in core foreign policy positions, reducing the likelihood of abrupt changes in relations with neighboring countries.

Beth Oppenheim, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, noted that an Eisenkot government would likely be politically fragile. She argued that the most substantial differences from the current administration would occur domestically, such as halting the judicial overhaul and opening a commission of inquiry into the events of October 7. In foreign policy, Oppenheim stated that a fundamental transformation is unlikely because nearly all Jewish Israeli parties embrace the current security doctrine of pre-empting threats and maintaining buffer zones beyond Israel's borders.

In Lebanon, officials view a potential shift to an Eisenkot-led bloc as favorable for ongoing negotiations. The two countries are discussing an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, an area Israel describes as a buffer zone against Hezbollah. Lebanese political circles believe Eisenkot, a former army commander, may be more approachable than Netanyahu and his right-wing allies. This perception persists even though Eisenkot is credited with developing the Dahiyeh Doctrine, a strategy of asymmetric warfare that is currently being applied in southern Lebanese villages where active fighting has subsided but demolition continues.

Relations with Saudi Arabia remain a critical factor in regional stability. Following the October 7, 2023 attack and the subsequent conflict that killed at least 70,000 Palestinians, Saudi conditions for normalization have hardened. Last week, Saudi Arabia co-signed a communique with Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt calling Israel the fundamental source of instability. Analysts suggest that a less hardline Israeli government would make it easier for Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states to acknowledge existing backchannel cooperation with Israel.

The path to a formal security agreement with Syria remains obstructed. Ksenia Svetlova, an associate fellow at Chatham House, told Syria in Transition that a withdrawal was previously seen as a defeat. She suggests that a more centrist government could make a security agreement more probable, though she expects the process to be slow due to pressure from the extreme right. Previous negotiations under US stewardship collapsed in late 2026 after Israel refused to retreat to the boundary lines established by the 1974 disengagement agreement.

In the Palestinian territories, support for a two-state solution has collapsed across most of the Jewish political spectrum. Eisenkot stated in August that no Palestinian state would be established under his potential government. However, a coalition including left-wing parties and Israel's Arab-led bloc, which now holds around 19 parliamentary seats, might slow the acceleration of settlement expansion. Mairav Zonszein of the International Crisis Group described this as the best possible outcome, a slowdown in the aggressive expansion seen in the last four years rather than a reversal of policy.