Ohio State and Oklahoma favored in tight Week 10 slate
Betting models see a double-digit Buckeyes victory over Oregon and a narrow Oklahoma win at Florida.
By Harper Collins ·
The 2026 college football season enters Week 10 with a slate defined by close spreads and high-stakes ranked matchups. SportsLine, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, has released its projections for the upcoming weekend. The model, which holds an 80-77 record on top-rated picks this season, identifies specific value in games involving Ohio State and Oklahoma.
The Ohio State Buckeyes face the Oregon Ducks on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET. The game airs on CBS and Paramount+. Ohio State is a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 45.5. The model projects the Buckeyes to cover the spread and win by double digits in more than 60% of simulations. Ohio State is coming off a loss at USC. Oregon defeated Northwestern in the previous week. The Ducks defense has allowed more passing touchdowns than just three other Big Ten teams. Ohio State has covered the spread in 80% of its home games since the start of 2025. Oregon is 1-3 against the spread following its win over Northwestern.
In another key matchup, the Oklahoma Sooners travel to Florida. Oklahoma is a 6.5-point underdog with a total of 44.5. The model suggests the Sooners will cover the spread in well over 50% of runs. Florida has lost three of its last four games, with each defeat coming by 19 or more points. Florida quarterback Aaron Philo was benched in the loss to Georgia after throwing two interceptions. His replacement, Tramell Jones, also committed two turnovers. Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer has averaged 296.5 total yards with four passing touchdowns and zero turnovers in his last two games. Florida leads the SEC in penalty yards.
The model also predicts the over will hit in 59% of simulations for the Oklahoma at Florida game. The system has identified three upsets in ranked matchups for the weekend. These predictions are part of a broader set of picks for every FBS contest.
The weekend schedule is packed with close contests in the SEC. Alabama hosts LSU on Saturday with the Crimson Tide favored by 6.5 points on a 52.5 total. Georgia plays Ole Miss with the Rebels as 3.5-point underdogs on a 56.5 total. Texas visits Missouri as a 2.5-point underdog on a 42.5 total. These lines reflect the tight nature of the conference play.
In the top 15, No. 1 Miami travels to No. 11 Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are 7.5-point favorites on a 54.5 total. Notre Dame is looking to avenge last year's loss to the Hurricanes. Miami will be without star wide receiver Malachi Toney, who is dealing with an ankle injury.
Out west, BYU visits Utah on Saturday. The Utes are 4.5-point home favorites on a 48.5 total. The Cougars are seeking a fourth consecutive win in this series, which dates back over 100 years.
Other notable games include Virginia Tech visiting SMU on Friday. SMU is a 6.5-point favorite on a 56.5 total. Nebraska plays Illinois on Friday with the Illini as 4.5-point underdogs on a 50.5 total. TCU visits Arizona on Friday with the Sun Devils favored by 7 points on a 46.5 total.
Saturday also features Michigan State visiting Michigan. The Wolverines are 14.5-point favorites on a 39.5 total. Cincinnati plays Houston with the Cougars favored by 10.5 points on a 62.5 total. Kentucky visits Tennessee with the Volunteers as 6.5-point favorites on a 49.5 total. UCLA plays Minnesota with the Golden Bears as 5-point underdogs on a 38.5 total.
Odds for all games are subject to change. The SportsLine model provides a projection for every game on the board. Fans can review the specific picks and odds for each contest before kickoff.
