Israel Faces Political Deadlock After Election: Four Ways Forward

Israel appears headed for political deadlock after Tuesday's election. With 85% of votes counted, neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition nor the bloc led by his main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, looks set to secure a majority. Forming a government would likely require one of the leading parties to break its campaign promises, which makes a fresh election the most probable result. Four scenarios are in play.

The first is a national unity government under Netanyahu. Eisenkot would have to abandon the core of his platform to take part, since he has presented himself as the only alternative to Netanyahu and built his campaign on removing him. On election night he urged Netanyahu to "announce his retirement from political life today" and told supporters that Israelis were tired of a "culture of lies", "division and incitement". That speech came before a major exit poll, which had first shown Eisenkot's bloc ahead, was revised and put Netanyahu in front.

Netanyahu could try to lure Eisenkot's Yashar Party into a unity government with Likud by dropping his current far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners. But at Likud headquarters he thanked his "loyal partners" and called for a "strong right-wing government", words some read as a sign he will keep that alliance. A renewed conflict with Iran could raise the pressure on leaders to set aside their differences. Israeli and US media reported before the vote that Netanyahu was pushing for new strikes and had asked Donald Trump to approve US involvement. Critics would likely portray such a move as an attempt to rescue his own political position.

The second scenario is an Eisenkot-led coalition that includes Arab parties, which would be a seismic shift. Only one independent Arab party has ever formally joined a coalition, in 2021, and it did not last long. Eisenkot and every other Jewish party in his bloc except one have ruled out the idea, yet it is currently the opposition's only route to a majority.

Arab parties were the story of the night. They appear to have beaten expectations and could win a record 19 seats, helped by unprecedented turnout among Israel's Arab citizens, who make up about one-fifth of the population and often describe themselves as Palestinian citizens of Israel. Many had boycotted past elections, arguing that voting legitimised a system that treats them as second-class citizens. This time, a wish to unseat the most right-wing governing coalition in Israel's history drove them to the polls. The United Arab list, projected at around 7 seats, has said it would join an opposition government, while the Joint List, projected at 12, would back one from outside. The only Jewish leader currently promoting this path is Yair Golan of The Democrats, and such a coalition would be fragile, especially on Gaza and the occupied West Bank.

The third option is a Netanyahu-led majority that draws in right-wingers from the opposition. Naftali Bennett, joint leader of the Beyachad alliance, and Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beiteinu are the likeliest candidates. Both are hardliners on security and share some ground with Netanyahu. However, both campaigned explicitly to oust him and to extend military conscription to the ultra-Orthodox, which puts them in direct conflict with the two ultra-Orthodox parties in his government. Some have suggested their parties could replace those partners, but current figures suggest the group would fall short of a majority.

If none of these routes works, the default outcome is new elections. Many would see that as a tacit win for Netanyahu, who would stay on as caretaker prime minister and may believe he has better odds in a rerun. Some analysts think the high Arab turnout may not be repeated, particularly if record representation brings no change, and it could energise more right-wing voters. Netanyahu may also bet that the estimated 70,000 Israelis who flew home from abroad to vote, thought to lean against him, would not do so again.

Several right-wing parties that missed the 3.25% electoral threshold may also draw fewer votes next time or decline to run, which could send more votes to Likud and its allies. Israel has been here before: between 2019 and 2022 it held five separate elections as Netanyahu and his rivals repeatedly struggled to cooperate.