Experts question Trump's crime credit
A panel of 48 crime specialists identified local factors, not federal actions, as the primary drivers of the recent drop in violent crime.
By Anthony Foster ·
The Council on Criminal Justice released a survey of 48 crime experts that challenges the White House claim that federal policy caused the recent decline in violent crime. The study, which assessed four dozen potential explanations for the drop in homicides, found that local factors and the end of pandemic disruptions were the main drivers.
The FBI reported in August that the U.S. homicide rate fell by 18% from 2024 to 2025. This decrease brought the rate to its lowest level since at least 1900. The Council on Criminal Justice noted that the rate is likely to reach a new historic low in the current year. President Donald Trump told a police academy in Nassau County, New York, on August 14 that the numbers dropped because of federal actions. He stated, “We have the numbers down because of what the federal government’s doing.”
The White House reinforced this narrative in a news release four days later, claiming the administration delivered the largest drop in violent crime in American history. A subsequent release following the preliminary results of the 2025 National Crime Victimization Survey declared that violent crime plummeted. Attorney General Todd Blanche said, “This is what happens when you have an administration [that] prioritizes the safety and security of Americans and our communities.” The survey showed the 2025 victimization rate for nonfatal violent crime, excluding simple assault, was 7.4 per 1,000 Americans 12 or older, down 25% from 2024.
The survey data indicates that the downward trend began in 2023, two years before the current administration took office. This timing complicates the argument that current federal policies are the sole cause of the decline. Experts noted that presidents have a limited role in law enforcement, which remains primarily a state and local function.
None of the 48 experts surveyed said Trump’s National Guard deployments made a major contribution to the decline. Only one expert perceived a limited impact from the Guard, and no one listed it as a top-five contributor. Immigration enforcement was also not cited as a top factor, although two participants said it played a limited role. The survey did not specifically ask about FBI arrests, but the agency accounted for only about 8% of violent crime arrests in 2025.
The most strongly favored explanation was the easing of pandemic-related social and economic disruption, which 57% of the experts deemed a major contributor. Other high-scoring factors included the expansion of community violence prevention programs and increased use of focused deterrence aimed at high-risk individuals and groups. Local government capacity and increases in public safety services relative to demand also received high scores.
The Council on Criminal Justice described the assessments as a work in progress. Firmer answers will require further research, but the current data suggests federal policies fall short of explaining the recent declines in violent crime.
